Scientifically Grounded Methodology
Quilara combines established frameworks from IT strategy, financial analysis and decision theory with state-of-the-art AI. Every result is based on transparent, reproducible methods.
Probabilistic Business Cases Instead of Guesswork
Traditional business cases deliver a single number — and hide the uncertainty. Quilara uses Monte Carlo simulations with up to 10,000 scenarios to calculate confidence intervals for NPV, ROI and payback. Each initiative is modeled with calibrated triangle distributions — based on your financial data, industry benchmarks and expert estimates.
- 10,000 simulation runs with triangle distributions (PERT-based)
- P10/P50/P90 confidence intervals for all financial KPIs
- Tornado sensitivity analysis: which initiatives have the greatest impact
- Break-even S-curve: probability of payback over time
Three simulation tiers — automatically selected
Histogram, Tornado, S-Curve, KPI Cards
3 weighted scenarios, Tornado, KPI Cards
Tornado + Break-even threshold
Pipeline architecture
350 analysis steps across 15 modules — each bound to a dimension rather than to a conversation.
Each agent has its own area of expertise (e.g. Cloud, Security, Finance), dedicated prompt templates and receives only the questionnaire responses relevant to it. Parallel execution with concurrency control reduces runtime to minutes instead of days.
Three Horizons Model
Strategic roadmap following the established 3-horizon model: Foundation, Transformation, Innovation.
H1 (Year 1): Quick Wins and foundation. H2 (Year 2-3): Core transformation and modernization. H3 (final year): Innovation and new business models. Bridging horizons (H1-H2, H2-H3) for initiatives spanning phases.
Maturity Framework
Quantitative assessment along each module's own dimensions, fed by 5,674 structured questions on a five-point scale.
As-is vs. to-be comparison per dimension with radar visualization, gap analysis and prioritized action items. Based on established maturity models (5-point scale, CMMI-inspired) with industry-specific benchmarks.
Triangle Distribution (PERT)
Every investment and benefit estimate is modeled as a calibrated range: optimistic, most likely, pessimistic.
The PERT triangle distribution (inverse CDF method) prevents false precision. Ranges are calibrated from Q07 financial data, document extraction and industry benchmarks. Guardrails (max 40% of IT budget per initiative, 2.5x total plausibility factor) prevent unrealistic outliers.
QA Feedback Loop
A dedicated Quality Assurance agent reviews every result and triggers revision cycles when needed.
Structured JSON feedback with traffic light status (Green/Yellow/Red). On Yellow/Red, affected specialists are targeted for revision and the Writer updates the overall document. Maximum 2 iterations — systematic, not endless.
Tornado Sensitivity Analysis
Identifies the top 10 initiatives with the greatest impact on overall NPV.
For each initiative, the impact of best and worst case assumptions on overall NPV is calculated. The swing width shows where more accurate estimates create the most value and where risk mitigation is most urgent.
Industry Benchmarks
Automatic positioning against industry averages: IT spend/revenue, Run/Grow/Transform split, FTE ratios.
Integrated benchmark database across 16 industries with IT spend figures, maturity comparisons and reference values. Web research supplements current market data.
FinOps & TCO Modeling
Total Cost of Ownership across the full strategy duration with year-by-year as-is vs. to-be comparison.
CapEx to OpEx shift through cloud migration, license optimization, shadow IT reduction. Discounted cash flows (default: 8%) with transparent methodology. Investment categorization by horizon and domain.
Compliance Frameworks
Automated gap analysis against NIS2, ISO 27001, EU AI Act, GDPR and industry-specific regulation.
Security and compliance agents systematically check all relevant requirements. Action plan with prioritization, effort estimation and timeline. Audit-ready documentation for auditing firms.
Referenced Standards & Frameworks
Our analyses and assessments are based on established, internationally recognized standards and frameworks.